July 12, 2023

New tool predicts when kidney transplant candidates can expect a good organ match

Some kidney patients on an organ waiting list may decline a kidney offered to them in the hope of a better match later on. Now, a new model offers estimates for the time to and quality of a next match. The tool supports personalized decision-making among transplant candidates and their doctors in terms of whether to accept a donated kidney now or wait until another, potentially better match is available.

Refusing an offer of a donated organ can adversely impact patients in terms of longer wait times on dialysis and lower quality of life. On the other hand, if candidates understand that the current offer is of similar quality to the expected average quality of future offers, they may be more likely to accept it. Therefore, it is important to develop tools that help patients understand their future options.

To create such a model, Jonathan Jalbert and colleagues analyzed administrative data collected between 2012 and 2017 from Transplant Quebec. Using these data, they created a model that predicts the average time to next offer, time to which there is a 95% probability of receiving a next offer, and an estimate of the average quality of future offers. Analysis suggests that the model offers good estimates for the time until and quality of next offers, especially when the time to next offer is five months or less.