June 24, 2026

Tool helps people compare dialysis and kidney transplant options

Deciding whether to pursue a kidney transplant can be difficult, especially when it is hard to understand how different treatment options may affect long-term health. To support more informed treatment decisions among people receiving maintenance dialysis, the iChoose Kidney risk calculator was developed in the United States to provide personalized estimates of survival with continued dialysis compared with kidney transplantation.  

The model was later adapted and validated in Ontario as the Dialysis vs. Kidney Transplant–Estimated Survival in Ontario Risk Calculator. In a recent study, Canadian researchers further updated and tested this Ontario version using more recent data. They also removed race from the calculator and focused on patients who were likely eligible for transplant. 

The updated Canadian version uses age, sex, time on dialysis, and other health conditions, including high blood pressure, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, to provide personalized three-year survival estimates for people receiving dialysis or a kidney transplant from a living or deceased donor.  

In their study, researcher Kyla Naylor and colleagues included more than 24,700 people receiving maintenance dialysis and more than 5,300 kidney transplant recipients in Ontario between 2011 and 2021. 

The researchers found that the updated Ontario calculator accurately predicted survival in both dialysis and transplant recipients, supporting its continued use as a tool to provide personalized survival estimates and help patients and care providers discuss kidney transplant options.